NRF 2024 Annual Retail Sales Forecast FAQ

What is NRF forecasting for total retail sales in 2024?

NRF forecasts that retail sales during 2024 will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% from 2023 to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. Last year, annual retail sales grew 3.6% over 2022 and totaled $5.1 trillion. The 2024 forecast is in line with the 10-year average annual sales growth of 3.6% prior to the pandemic.

What portion of total retail sales occurs online?

NRF expects that online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total sales forecast, will increase between 7% and 9% year over year to a range of $1.47 trillion to $1.50 trillion. That compares with non-store and online sales of $1.38 trillion in 2023. Much of the growth in ecommerce is due to multichannel sales, which rely heavily on physical stores. Bricks-and-mortar locations remain the primary point of purchase for consumers, accounting for approximately 70% of total retail sales.

Does NRF’s annual forecast account for inflation?

Inflation is taken into consideration in the forecast as inflation can impact how, and how much, consumers spend. However, the forecast is presented on a nominal basis, which means that it is not inflation-adjusted.

What other economic factors does the forecast take into account?

NRF’s forecast is based on economic modeling that considers a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. The calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail.

Does NRF factor the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI) or the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) into its forecast?

NRF’s modeling of the economy and retail sales incorporates price changes. Our belief is that the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a more complete and accurate measure of consumer inflation.

How much have retail sales grown in the last few years?

In 2023, retail sales grew 3.6% over 2022 to $5.1 trillion, meeting NRF’s forecast.

How does NRF define retail sales?

Retail sales, as defined by NRF, include both store-based and online purchases in a broad range of retail categories including discount stores, department stores, grocers and specialty stores, but excludes purchases at automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

What’s the difference between shopping and purchasing?

NRF defines shopping as browsing items with the intent to purchase, whether online or in stores. Purchasing is the act of actually buying a product.