NRF forecasts that holiday spending will reach record levels during November and December and will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023 to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. This year’s holiday spending measures favorably with the pre-pandemic average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019. For more information or to receive additional winter holiday updates, contact press@nrf.com.
In terms of retail spending, the winter holidays include the months of November and December and cover major consumer shopping events such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa. However, in recent years more consumers have started to check items off their lists early, and retailers have responded to demand by offering earlier holiday deals and sales events.
Overall, holiday sales in November and December have averaged about 19% of total retail sales over the last five years, but the figure can be higher for some retailers. In addition, holiday sales can be more profitable because the increased volume of purchases comes without significantly increasing retailers’ fixed costs of doing business.
NRF expects retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers. This is in line with 509,000 seasonal hires in 2023. Some of this hiring may have been pulled into October to support retailers’ holiday buying events in October.
Retail sales, as defined by NRF, include store-based, online and other non-store purchases (direct-to-consumer, kiosks, catalog, etc.) in a broad range of retail categories including discount stores, department stores, grocers and specialty stores, but exclude purchases at automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
Retail sales figures are calculated by NRF based on data reported from the U.S. Census Bureau. NRF tallies retail sales — excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — typically covering the time period between Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 to determine holiday sales. Sales during these months include traditional holiday purchases as well as items not specifically for holiday celebrations. Separately, Prosper Insights & Analytics conducts surveys for NRF based on what consumers say they plan to spend specifically on holiday items such as gifts, decorations, food and other seasonal items.
For the last several years, approximately 2 out of every 5 holiday shoppers have started browsing and buying before November. The top reasons consumers begin their shopping ahead of time are to spread out their budget, avoid the stress of last-minute shopping and avoid crowds. Regardless of how early consumers start, most will wrap up in December and will still be purchasing their last gifts in the week leading up to the Dec. 25 holiday.
Retailers have been preparing to meet this consumer demand by moving up their peak shipping season to bring in products earlier than normal, stocking holiday merchandise earlier to ensure they have inventory in place for the start of the season, and launching holiday sale events as early as October.
Even though the 2024 U.S. presidential election will take place during the winter holiday season, it is nearly impossible to measure its impact on current or future spending.
NRF forecasts retail sales, which are produced on a nominal basis, but does not forecast expected inflation rates. Calculating a real, inflation-adjusted, growth number is much more complicated than subtracting inflation from nominal retail sales growth. Each individual area of retail has different inflation levels associated with it. Cars and groceries have had very high inflation while home goods and apparel inflation has been lower. We also need to adjust the entire series, so 2021 and 2022 numbers would need to be adjusted as well in determining a real number for 2023. NRF expects we will have real, inflation-adjusted, growth for the holiday season. We are forecasting retail sales, not inflation.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are part of the five-day shopping event that begins on Thanksgiving Day and continues through the following Monday. Typically, these five days represent some of the busiest shopping days of the year as consumers browse and buy online, in stores and, increasingly, on smartphones and other mobile devices. However, in recent years consumer behavior has shifted with many consumers preferring to spread their shopping over the entire season. Retailers have adapted to ensure they are meeting consumers when and how they want to shop. Some retailers may choose to close on Thanksgiving Day while others spread out their “Black Friday” deals both in stores and online throughout the holiday season.
NRF is not officially affiliated with Small Business Saturday but supports any initiative to recognize the millions of small retail business establishments and their contributions to the economy and their communities. An estimated 90% of all U.S. retail companies employ 100 people or fewer.
NRF defines shopping as browsing items with the intent to purchase, whether online or in stores. Purchasing is the act of actually buying a product.
Some retailers make return policies more lenient during the holiday season, understanding that there can be a lag time between when a gift is purchased and received. However, many retailers have also begun to change their return policies to account for an increase in return fraud.
The vast majority of returns occur in January, after the winter holidays. In addition to returning items for a refund, many consumers use holiday returns as an opportunity to make an additional purchase or shop retailers’ post-holiday sales. Learn more in our “2022 Consumer Returns in the Retail Industry” report here.
The three-day labor strike at East and Gulf coast container ports (Oct. 1-3) should not have an impact on the 2024 holiday shopping season. The ports should be able to recover quickly from the short-term shutdown.
Retailers experienced a number of supply chain disruptions during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the strategies adopted to address disruptions during that time continue today. Retailers are continuing to bring products in earlier during their peak shipping season to ensure products are ready in-store and online for the holiday shopping season. They have invested in enhanced technology that allows customers to see what products are currently in stock, if items are available at alternate locations, and how long items are expected to take for delivery. As with other consumer spending holidays, NRF encourages consumers to shop early so they are able to find the products they want and need on time.